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AI bubble burst this week? OpenAI under significant stress
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most of that hardware hasn't even been made yet.
a lot of fab capacity will soon be free. plus some of that stuff can be reused easily.
This is the only scenario that would be awesome to happen.
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OpenAI is out of cash. It wanted to raise $30B last week but only $11b showed up. It's now begging for an additional $9b (down from original request of $19b more) from plebs, but no one has committed anything. They want to raise money at a $1.25T valuation, while ANThropic is struggling to clear a $1.3T valuation for its IPO, and ANT is arguably worth double whatever OpenAI is worth, or more precisely OpenAI is half of ANT.
OpenAI is likely this week to lock in that $11b in commitments to prevent "cold feet clauses", and then add incentives for the other cash it needs. Coreweave is another company that needs cash now, with no good options to raise any of it.
The AI circular financing bubble has OpenAI at the center. Instead of pretending it is worth $1T, all of the promises OpenAI has made have bankruptcy triggering clauses by the promise receivers, and under bankruptcy, selling off assets is worth less than $10b, and datacenters are dark without need for more of them, or more GPUs.
What seems surprising, is that even though the bubble fuckers know that collapse/pop occurs when OpenAI crashes, they are not stepping up with a measly $9b to keep it alive for a few months.
Any moment, ANY MOMENT
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Unfortunately, the shit they've already made can't be reused for gaming. CPUs ram and gpus are not made for home PCs.
You can't repurpose a DC/clippy 2.0 GPU for gaming, the CPUs while you can put a server CPU into a home workstation, it's not going to be as good or as cheap electric wise as a consumer PC CPU. (I have a epyc CPU with ecc ram, it's great for hosting dedicated servers, but is pretty weak for actual gaming). Same goes for the GPUs, most don't even have display ports on them, and those that do, it's usually just one or two at the most.
You can't repurpose a DC/clippy 2.0 GPU for gaming
If it's AMD hardware, you're SOL - they removed ROPs entirely ~4 gens ago.
If it's nVidia, it depends on what it is- firstly you need to get PCIe versions not SXM (unless China makes an SXM to PCIe adapter) then If it's Hopper (2 gens ago) or Blackwell (Latest), it will perform badly for the specs, but it's possible, if it's Lovelace (last gen) or Ampere (3 gens ago), you could make it happen.
Hopper and Blackwell both skip RT cores and only have 24 ROPs no matter what model. Lovelace and Ampere are full-fat. An L40 should actually be a better GPU than an RTX4090 for the most part.
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My kid might actually get a new gaming PC for Christmas!
That depends, has you kid been born yet?
/s
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Companies like these are too big to go bankrupt, it will crash but OpenAI will make all the excuses to get whatever they need to avoid bankruptcy.
Read Ed Zitron.
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You can't repurpose a DC/clippy 2.0 GPU for gaming
If it's AMD hardware, you're SOL - they removed ROPs entirely ~4 gens ago.
If it's nVidia, it depends on what it is- firstly you need to get PCIe versions not SXM (unless China makes an SXM to PCIe adapter) then If it's Hopper (2 gens ago) or Blackwell (Latest), it will perform badly for the specs, but it's possible, if it's Lovelace (last gen) or Ampere (3 gens ago), you could make it happen.
Hopper and Blackwell both skip RT cores and only have 24 ROPs no matter what model. Lovelace and Ampere are full-fat. An L40 should actually be a better GPU than an RTX4090 for the most part.
Yea they make the adapters for like $100 on eBay for smx2/3 cards. They're reference designs and loud as fuck. So you have to retro fit proper fans to them. So it's doable.
The L40s are expensive as fuck right now being a recent gen and all but shit if the bubble pops, then might see them getting sold for few hundred a piece. That'd be cool.
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Companies like these are too big to go bankrupt, it will crash but OpenAI will make all the excuses to get whatever they need to avoid bankruptcy.
Refer to my comment here from some time ago:
I am aware of this possibility and its likelihood, but even so, it will be bad. Not all of the companies are too big to fail. Just the big ones like OpenAI and Anthropic.
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Companies like these are too big to go bankrupt, it will crash but OpenAI will make all the excuses to get whatever they need to avoid bankruptcy.
/yawns/
Will ya look up history of "too big to fail" for me?
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OpenAI is out of cash. It wanted to raise $30B last week but only $11b showed up. It's now begging for an additional $9b (down from original request of $19b more) from plebs, but no one has committed anything. They want to raise money at a $1.25T valuation, while ANThropic is struggling to clear a $1.3T valuation for its IPO, and ANT is arguably worth double whatever OpenAI is worth, or more precisely OpenAI is half of ANT.
OpenAI is likely this week to lock in that $11b in commitments to prevent "cold feet clauses", and then add incentives for the other cash it needs. Coreweave is another company that needs cash now, with no good options to raise any of it.
The AI circular financing bubble has OpenAI at the center. Instead of pretending it is worth $1T, all of the promises OpenAI has made have bankruptcy triggering clauses by the promise receivers, and under bankruptcy, selling off assets is worth less than $10b, and datacenters are dark without need for more of them, or more GPUs.
What seems surprising, is that even though the bubble fuckers know that collapse/pop occurs when OpenAI crashes, they are not stepping up with a measly $9b to keep it alive for a few months.
Q2/Q3 2027 that's been my bet and will be my bet. Finance breaking down takes time, there are so many ways you can bail water.
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Ooooohhh sounds like fun, need to set aside some cash for the firesale of hard drives and gpus soon to flood ebay lol
Probably all going to be bought by cryptominers.
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Q2/Q3 2027 that's been my bet and will be my bet. Finance breaking down takes time, there are so many ways you can bail water.
What do you think gets triggered then? Is it just the ability to drag out consequences?
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What do you think gets triggered then? Is it just the ability to drag out consequences?
That date is when the majority of the loan obligations and investors returns come due. If they don't have their profits by then (which they won't) they essentially have to liquidate.
Its why you are seeing all of the AI companies try to go public right now, even though the timing is bad and the market isn't ready for it. The AI bros want to get their bags before it all unwinds.
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Questo post è eliminato!
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When the bubble bursts, will the components really go back to pre-bubble prices?
no because inflation, but the price will probably fall to what it would be if the bubble didn't exist.
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OpenAI is out of cash. It wanted to raise $30B last week but only $11b showed up. It's now begging for an additional $9b (down from original request of $19b more) from plebs, but no one has committed anything. They want to raise money at a $1.25T valuation, while ANThropic is struggling to clear a $1.3T valuation for its IPO, and ANT is arguably worth double whatever OpenAI is worth, or more precisely OpenAI is half of ANT.
OpenAI is likely this week to lock in that $11b in commitments to prevent "cold feet clauses", and then add incentives for the other cash it needs. Coreweave is another company that needs cash now, with no good options to raise any of it.
The AI circular financing bubble has OpenAI at the center. Instead of pretending it is worth $1T, all of the promises OpenAI has made have bankruptcy triggering clauses by the promise receivers, and under bankruptcy, selling off assets is worth less than $10b, and datacenters are dark without need for more of them, or more GPUs.
What seems surprising, is that even though the bubble fuckers know that collapse/pop occurs when OpenAI crashes, they are not stepping up with a measly $9b to keep it alive for a few months.
I think they want to use the bubble bursting to punish attempts to regulate them, like a form of capital strike.
"Oh, you want to restrict data center development? Well we'll blow up the economy! Fuck you!"
The bubble will stay inflated as long as they need it as a threat to keep the new Dem majority in line.
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That date is when the majority of the loan obligations and investors returns come due. If they don't have their profits by then (which they won't) they essentially have to liquidate.
Its why you are seeing all of the AI companies try to go public right now, even though the timing is bad and the market isn't ready for it. The AI bros want to get their bags before it all unwinds.
Also the date when most AI startups run out of runway with VC money, therefore no more money to Anthropic.
Seriously, some of those startups are planning on AI thinking up a profit strategy. Watch the store shelves for powdered water.
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That date is when the majority of the loan obligations and investors returns come due. If they don't have their profits by then (which they won't) they essentially have to liquidate.
Its why you are seeing all of the AI companies try to go public right now, even though the timing is bad and the market isn't ready for it. The AI bros want to get their bags before it all unwinds.
OK. ty. To be fair, $11b does buy them 3-4 months of burn. Any part of $9b that can stay open for those 3-4 months, is up to another 3 months of burn. They have to IPO after, because another private round below $1.25T triggers massive penalties to early investors. That does get us to Q2.
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Also the date when most AI startups run out of runway with VC money, therefore no more money to Anthropic.
Seriously, some of those startups are planning on AI thinking up a profit strategy. Watch the store shelves for powdered water.Lol I haven't heard about that. What company is or is planning to do that?
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Probably all going to be bought by cryptominers.
Maybe, is that even profitable anymore with exchange prices crashing?
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Lol I haven't heard about that. What company is or is planning to do that?
Various permutations of that joke have been floating around since dehydrated food hit the market
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